Mapping Electoral Violence in Nigeria: Revisiting The 2019 General Elections

Abstract

Electoral violence remains a persistent challenge to democratic consolidation in Nigeria despite repeated legal, institutional, and administrative reforms. This study revisits the 2019 general elections to examine the perceived impact of electoral violence on election conduct and to identify major factors associated with its persistence. The study adopted a survey design complemented by key informant interviews (KIIs). The study distributed 400 questionnaires across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones; 307 usable questionnaires were returned, for a 76.75% response rate. The study also interviewed seven politically knowledgeable key informants from the geopolitical zones. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse questionnaire responses, while interview evidence was used to interpret and contextualise the quantitative results. Frustration-aggression theory provided the principal analytical lens, while its limitations in explaining strategic and elite-organised violence were acknowledged. The findings indicate that 91.5% of questionnaire respondents perceived electoral violence as having a high or very high adverse impact on the 2019 elections. Respondents associated this impact with intimidation, disruption of voting and collation, loss of life and property, reduced participation, and weakened confidence in election administration. In addition, 84.7% agreed or strongly agreed that the high rewards attached to public office, combined with weak punishment of electoral offenders, contributed substantially to electoral violence. These findings are consistent with domestic and international observer reports documenting intimidation, violence, vote buying, security concerns, and serious irregularities during the 2019 electoral cycle. The study concludes that electoral violence undermines participation, electoral integrity, and public confidence, but cautions that the survey establishes respondents’ perceptions and associations rather than definitive causal effects. It recommends stronger enforcement against electoral offences, risk-based election security, internal party reforms, sustained civic and political-tolerance education, and measures to reduce incentives to treat elective office as a winner-takes-all prize.