Population and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

The study employed time series data ranging from 1981 to 2024 to investigate the nexus between population and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria with the application of the Augmented Dicky-Fuller unit root test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds approach to cointegration (ARDL), and the Toda-Yamamoto dynamic Granger causality test econometric technique. The study model consists of real gross domestic product per capita, population growth rate, foreign direct investment, government expenditure on education, agricultural output, and gross fixed capital formation, with data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Findings from the study indicated that the population growth rate was insignificant but positively related to Nigeria's economic growth. In contrast, the control variables were all significant and positively related to it. The result also showed a unidirectional causal link from economic growth to population growth. The study recommended that Nigeria's policy objective of economic growth should be pursued independently of population planning. The government should invest more in human capital development projects to enhance and harness Nigeria's human resource potential. In addition, the annual budget allocation to the education and agricultural sectors should be increased, while the tax rate should be reviewed downward to encourage domestic savings.